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Article by Coindesk: Omkar Godbole
Bitcoin’s latest bout of consolidation may end up with bullish breakout, as a key metric of miner confidence has hit all-time highs.
The top cryptocurrency by market value has clocked lower daily highs and higher daily lows over the last three days and is currently trading at $10,300 on Bitstamp, little changed on a 24-hour basis.
The cryptocurrency has charted the narrowing price range amid a surge in non-price metrics including a rise in the network’s hash rate — a measure of the computing power dedicated to mining bitcoin.
The two-week average hash rate reached a record high of 85 exahashes per second (EH/s) around 19:00 UTC last Friday. Further, mining difficulty — a measure of how hard it is to create a block of transactions — also jumped to a new all-time of nearly 12 trillion.
The hash rate could be considered a barometer of miner’s confidence in the bitcoin price rally. After all, the miners would be ready to dedicate more resources for mining if they are bullish on price and would want to scale back their operations if a price slide is expected.
Hence, many observers, including the likes of Changpeng Zhao, Founder of Binance, and former Wall Street trader and journalist Max Keiser believe prices follow hash rate.
Zhao tweeted on Friday that, “a rising hash rate means more miners are investing in BTC”, while few other observers stated that sellers should think twice before betting against the most secure blockchain — the higher the hash rate of a cryptocurrency network, the more expensive to 51 percent attack.
Put simply, Zhao is expecting bitcoin’s price to track the hash rate higher. It is worth noting that the market stands divided on the relationship between bitcoin’s price and hash rate.
Some observers believe the hash rate follows price and the metric’s outperformance represents overtly exuberant miners. Hence, reading the rising hash rate as a sign of an impending price rally may prove costly.
That said, the price is likely to follow the hash rate this time, as overexuberance is typically observed at market tops or near record highs. As of now, BTC is down almost $10,000 from the record high of $20,000 reached in December.
Also, the market sentiment is quite bullish with reward halving (supply cut) due in less than a year and the sustained uptick in miners’ confidence is more likely to draw fresh bids, possibly leading to a positive feedback loop.
All-in-all, the narrowing price range established over the last few days is likely to pave the way for a bullish move.
Daily and 4-hour charts
Bitcoin has charted (above left) back-to-back inside bar candlestick pattern over the last three days. The first inside bar appeared on Friday as that day’s high and low fell within Thursday’s trading range.
The second and the third inside bar candle was created on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Inside bars indicate consolidation and lack of volatility and often end with an explosive move on either side. A break below the first inside bar’s (Friday) low of $10,154 would imply range breakdown and could yield a stronger sell-off to levels below $9,855 (Sept. 11 low).
A break above Friday’s high of $10,458 would imply range breakout and open the doors to $10,956 (July 20 high).
The falling wedge breakout confirmed on the 4-hour chart (above right) last week is still valid. So, the probability of range breakout is high.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View
Total Hash Rate (TH/s) The estimated number of terahashes per second the bitcoin network is performing in the last 24 hours. 30 Days 60 Days 180 Days 1 Year 3 Years All Time Raw Values 7 Day Average 30 Day Average This signal activates very rarely, in short, this is the third time in the history of bitcoin. It works based on the conditions of Price, Hashrate and Difficulty and in conjunction with favorable conditions for bitcoin mining. - Consider the average values of Bitcoin, Hashrate and Difficulty. When mining comes out of the contraction phases, like the current one, there are strong signs of ... Difficulty is up 133% since January first 2019, hash rate almost 180%, and price has climbed around 125% over the same period which would suggest there is some relationship. During the latter part of 2018 bitcoin price plummeted along with hash rate and difficulty as miners capitulated. The next expected difficulty change however is still five days away scheduled for on or around November 2, 2020. Today there are 17 mining pools pointing their hash at the BTC chain. The top ... Bitcoin Price Analysis Opinion. Network mining fundamentals have shown impressive growth in the past few weeks with both hash rate and difficulty reaching new highs. Dash Average hashrate (hash/s) per day Chart. Transactions Block Size Sent from addresses Difficulty Hashrate Price in USD Mining Profitability Sent in USD Avg. Transaction Fee Median Transaction Fee Block Time Market Capitalization Avg. Transaction Value Median Transaction Value Tweets Active Addresses Top100ToTotal Fee in Reward Dash Average mining difficulty per day Chart. Transactions Block Size Sent from addresses Difficulty Hashrate Price in USD Mining Profitability Sent in USD Avg. Transaction Fee Median Transaction Fee Block Time Market Capitalization Avg. Transaction Value Median Transaction Value Tweets Active Addresses Top100ToTotal Fee in Reward The Bitcoin network just went through the second-largest negative difficulty adjustment and its most significant one since the start of the ASIC era. The 16.05% decline exceeded previous expectations indicating a readjustment of somewhere between 7% and 10%. Record-Setting BTC Mining Difficulty Adjustment The mining difficulty on the Bitcoin network goes through an automatic adjustment […] Um dieser gleitenden Hash-Rate Rechnung zu tragen, erlebte das Bitcoin-Netz gerade die zweitgrößte negative Anpassung der Schwierigkeiten im Mining, die es je gab. Dies macht es für im Westen ansässige Miner äußerst lukrativ, die nun aufgrund der abnehmenden Konzentration der Mining-Power in China Blöcke mit größerer Leichtigkeit abbauen können. Im Bitcoin-Netzwerk liegt die durchschnittliche Hash Rate bei 9,9 TH/s und sie wächst mit jedem neuen Miner, der sich dem Netzwerk anschließt, weiter an. Während des Mining-Vorgangs wird durch eine Reihe mathematischer Operationen versucht, den kryptischen Header eines Blockes zu entschlüsseln. Dabei werden durchaus unzählige Versuche benötigt, um die richtige Kombination zu finden. Je ...
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